Pipeline Case Study

Forecasting a Pipeline Asset: Complex Patient Flow, Several Moving Parts

Situation

CLIENT

Global big pharma company with a strong oncology focus

PRODUCT

Late-stage, highly targeted pipeline drug candidate for immunotherapy, indicated for a complex, underserved therapeutic condition

ASK

Design and build a custom forecast model spanning all global regions, accommodating key therapeutic and commercial drivers of product performance

Challenges

COMPLEX PATIENT FLOW & TREATMENT PARADIGM

Multiple indications and lines of therapy constituting an interlinked treatment paradigm, with regional variations in physician preferences and demographic nuances

STAGGERED LAUNCHES – NON-PROMOTED USAGE

Underserved therapy area combined with multiple indications and staggered launches, leading to significant potential in non-promoted usage

CROSS-FUNCTIONAL STAKEHOLDER MANAGEMENT

  • Regional stakeholders from 15 participating geographies
  • Multiple third-party vendor/partners conducting supporting research
  • Senior management responsible for global forecast
  • Global HQ

Approach

EXECUTED IN-DEPTH THERAPY-AREA RESEARCH

Assessed therapy-area nuances, clinical and commercial drivers of product usage, and shift in treatment paradigms driven by imminent pipeline approvals

CONDUCTED ANALOG RESEARCH

Identified and evaluated uptake performances of recent key launches to drive uptake assumptions

SUPPORTED DESIGN OF PRIMARY MARKET RESEARCH

Collaborated on the design of qualitative and quantitative PMR, and leveraged outcomes to construct forecast assumptions and scenarios

IDENTIFIED AND FORMALIZED POST-LAUNCH DYNAMICS

Worked with key stakeholders to define dynamics such as non-promoted usage, combo-therapy and competitor events

DEVELOPED VISCADIA ACE® FORECAST PLATFORM

Customized platform for the product opportunity that allowed for dynamic, comprehensive evaluation of key performance drivers, and enabled scenario comparison and contrasting

Outcomes

END DELIVERABLE

  • Standard patient flow design harmonizing variations and commonalities in forecasting approach across global regions
  • Viscadia ACE® forecast platform with a comprehensive set of output views and summaries addressing cross-functional stakeholders
  • Efficient interface to facilitate easy aggregation of forecast results across global regions
  • Geography-specific thought leadership on prioritizing action plan leading up to launch

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

  • Successfully collaborated and worked harmoniously alongside multiple third-party vendors
  • Delivered support and leadership to stakeholders from 15 global regions across multiple time zones
  • Conducted live workshops to drive adoption and support for new forecasting platform among multiple stakeholders

IMPACT

  • US leadership gained unprecedented buy-in from all regional counterparts and Global HQ on asset potential
  • Client successfully moved the asset to Phase III of clinical trials following global opportunity assessment
  • Established an end-to-end forecasting process which eventually defined best practices across multiple pipeline assets