Rapid forecast delivery for potential late-stage pipeline acquisition

A specialty pharmaceutical company wanted to evaluate the potential of a late-stage
pipeline oral drug. The drug candidate had an attractive target product profile but was launching into a significantly genericized market.

Viscadia was asked to design and build a custom forecast model to clearly identify the risks and opportunities facing both the product and the wider market.

Delivered complete, in-depth commercial assessment in 25 days

CHALLENGES

Current market
landscape

  • Challenges with promotional effectiveness and physician adoption, partly driven  by complex diagnosis patterns

Pricing and
access

  • Potentially crucial unanswered questions regarding patient and payer acceptance — primarily due to price differential versus the generic-heavy market median

Accelerated
timeline

  • Had one month to complete the project
  • Data room due diligence
  • Primary, secondary, pricing, and payer research
  • Custom forecast model and executive presentation with a range of scenarios to support bid deliberations

APPROACH

Executed secondary
market research and
data room diligence

Assessed market landscape, drivers of drug selection, patient flow, reaction to the target product profile, and impact of pricing and access on product acceptance

Conducted in-depth primary
market research (PMR)

Qualitative IDIs: KOLS, N=4; Practitioners, N=12; Payers, N=4

Quantitative Research: Practitioners, N=100; Payers, N=20

Analogue research
for pricing and
uptake

Identified relevant analogues to develop a perspective on pricing and implications of the ensuing access constraints on product uptake

Established
a baseline view

Evaluated near-term future of the overall market, drawing  on inputs from KOLs, practitioners and payers, and their  positioning/ projected uptake for the product opportunity

Developed forecast
platform

Customized platform for the product opportunity, allowing for dynamic, comprehensive evaluation of key performance drivers and enabling scenario comparison and contrasting

OUTCOMES

End deliverables

  • Synthesis of PMR findings and thought leadership around therapy-area nuances
  • Forecast platform with a comprehensive set of output views and summaries to address cross-functional stakeholders
  • Executive presentation that clearly identifies risks and opportunities
  • Strategic plan document to support product launch

Key highlights

  • Provided all deliverables in 25 days
  • Identified payer inclination to provide coverage, but in a higher tier combined with restrictions via step edits or prior authorizations
  • Worked to create a consensus

Accelerated timeline

  • Client acquired the asset
  • Viscadia continues to be the client’s partner of choice for urgent yet comprehensive BD&L commercial assessments
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