Global launch forecast planning for an oncology asset

A large global pharmaceutical company wanted to better understand the product potential of a HER3 directed ADC for the treatment of patients with metastatic NSCLC

Viscadia was tasked with designing and building custom forecast platforms and processes catering to the U.S., EU5, Japan, and China to support cross-functional stakeholder objectives leading up to its launch

Successfully established robust forecast capabilities across regions and enabled smooth launch forecast planning

CHALLENGES

Complex patient
segmentation based on
treatment history

  • Tracking patients across multiple lines of therapy
  • Segmenting eligible patients based on treatment history and availability of inputs
  • Mapping  patient opportunity based on patient journey across the lines of therapy

Lack of standard forecast
model and process across
regions

  • Different forecasting processes across geographies
  • Multiple disconnected forecast narratives at the regional and global HQ level
  • Incorporating region-specific nuances such as pricing and patient access

Growing need for a
comprehensive forecast
storyboard

  • Simulating several what if forecast scenarios across geographies
  • Consolidating forecast models’ regions to form a clean forecast storyboard

APPROACH

Gap analysis

Conducted in-depth interviews with global and regional stakeholders.

Audited literature and deep dived into existing forecast models

Patient journey and
segmentation

Designed patient segments to account for patient’s treatment choice in each line of therapy

Aligned treatment eligibility and patient opportunity segments

Regional forecasting
nuances

Collaborated with stakeholders to incorporate regional nuances into the forecast model flow

Devised developed a comprehensive forecasting framework that could scale across regions

Market share modeling and
event impact

Designed market share modeling framework by calibrating inputs from the physician research

Modeled event impact due to competitor launches at the segment level

Pipeline forecast model and
global forecast aggregator

Design and built patient flow forecast models for each region

Built a global forecast model aggregator for the headquarters to assimilate forecasts from different regions

Forecast analytics
and storyboards

Designed clear, comprehensive and actionable forecast summaries for executive decision making

Automated the workflow of consolidating regional forecast scenarios into a single storybaord

OUTCOMES

End deliverables

  • Viscadia Global Forecast Model
  • (For headquarters)
  • Viscadia Regional Forecast Models (For individual countries)
  • Different aggregator models for EU and Global teams
  • User guide for stakeholder training

Key highlights

  • Streamlined the global forecasting process through deep collaboration
  • Established new forecasting infrastructure and facilitated stakeholder onboarding
  • Led forecast stakeholders from 8 global regions towards forecasting best practices
  • Conducted live workshops to drive adoption and support for new forecasting platform

Impact

  • Successfully established robust forecast capabilities across regions and enabled smooth launch forecast planning
  • Patient segmentation approach built in the project set the tone for future demand studies
  • A standardized framework across geographies equipped the headquarter leadership to go to market with more forecasting confidence
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