Building forecasting capabilities For a complex oncology patient flow

A global biotechnology company wanted to forecastmarket potential for their oral TKI inhibitor of the HER2 protein, which had been approved for oncology indication for all major markets.

Viscadia was asked to design and build an epidemiology-based patient flow model to construct a market landscape and assess product potential across 22 different markets around the world, while also incorporating regional nuances specific to several key markets.

Streamlined forecasting processes for a global oncology asset with ~$1.5B total revenue spread across 22 geographies

CHALLENGES

Complex treatment
paradigm

  • Tracking patients across multiple lines of therapy
  • Segmenting eligible patients based on treatment history
  • Incorporating nuances critical to oncology forecasting such as participation in clinical trials, patient warehousing, and bolus patient switching

Lack of global
forecasting framework

  • Regional stakeholders leveraged independent forecasting processes leading to multiple disconnected forecasting narratives
  • Incorporating region-specific nuances such as affordability, patient access, seasonality, and differential SKU size

Go-to-market
modeling

  • Reconciling forecast with actual demand units post-launch
  • Triangulating demand forecast with the account level, bottoms up forecast

APPROACH

Patient flow
model

Designed and built a comprehensive patient flow forecast model, allowing in-depth tracking of patient metrics (such as naïve and experienced patients, and more) across multiple lines of therapy

New launches
and approvals

Constructed an easy-to-use event module to model the impact of new launches and indication approvals on market, product, and patient trends

Regional forecast
harmonization

Engaged with stakeholders to understand strategic imperatives and developed a forecasting framework that could scale across geographies

Global forecast
platform

Automated the aggregation of 22 regional models with the global forecast to facilitate decision making at headquarters

Refining forecast
assumptions

Performed deep-dives and set up analytical processes to continuously refine key forecasting assumptions, including projections for SKU-level demand and bolus patients

Scenario planning and
optimization

Equipped the regional and global models with the functionality to simulate what-if scenarios, review KPIs, and assess key forecast drivers

OUTCOMES

End deliverables

  • Viscadia Global Forecast Model (For headquarters)
  • Viscadia Regional Forecast Models (For individual countries)
  • Monthly, Quarterly, and Annual Forecasts (For corporate planning)

Key highlights

  • Streamlined the global forecasting process through deep collaboration
  • Developed new forecasting infrastructure and facilitated stakeholder onboarding
  • Successfully partnered with the client to faciliatethe budgeting and corporate planning process
  • Advised the client for cross-functional business needs including sales force target optimization and inventory planning

Impact

  • The forecast model enabled comprehensive and intuitive evaluation of key performance indicators and helped drive stakeholder decisions
  • Established an end-to-end forecasting process which eventually defined best practices across multiple pipeline and on-market assets
  • Viscadia was chosen as an overarching partner to supervise forecast data reporting, corporate planning and commercial analytics
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