Designing a specialized forecast model for pain management portfolio

An upcoming specialty pharmaceutical firm was looking to elevate its forecasting infrastructure for its pain management portfolio.

Viscadia designed and built a statistical trend-based forecast platform for predicting demand across different channels. While accounting for market, product or channel level event impacts. Furthermore, it granted the capability to download essential summaries and execute comprehensive calculations quickly.

A comprehensive inline model that incorporates the synergistic effect of product/market and contracting events.

CHALLENGES

Data reconciliation

  • Utilizing multiple sources and flavors of data to prepare the repository for the baseline trend forecast
  • Lack of unified datasets to bridge payer and PBM accounts  to pertinent product-contract-level mapping

Trend forecasting

  • Incorporating an integrated stand-alone data trending tool within the primary model
  • Reducing the clutter around using multiple spreadsheets every time refreshing the forecast

Lack of forecast process

  • Process to compare forecasts across Quarterly cycles to ascertain change drivers
  • Unified solution to assist in both short-term and long-term forecasts for business planning

APPROACH

Data triangulation

Triangulated demand, ex-factory and distributor data to prepare inputs for trending. Automated data processing to build data pipeline and adjust for capture rates

Integrating trending tool

Designed an integrated and robust statistical palette to generate baseline forecast as part of the inline model, embedding it within the primary framework

Comparison cycles for LBE

Built in modular fashion to visualize and draw comparison across different forecast versions. Adjunct waterfall views to assist in compartmentalizing the deviation

Payer to Contract mapping

Implemented an end-to-end dynamic feature to map rebates data at payer level to contract type level by leveraging insurance program details

Automation capabilities

Devised user-friendly automation in the model to enhance model usability and accessibility while not compromising the transparency of the flow

Event modelling

Developed a comprehensive module to weigh in impact of key events for market, product and contracting events and assimilated it within the model

OUTCOMES

End deliverables

  • Pain Management Portfolio Forecast Model
  • Short-term and Long-term forecasts (for better planning)
  • Infrastructure to process and crunch rebates data for using it within the primary framework for informing GTN assumptions

Key highlights

  • Developed a robust model to enhance forecasting process and manage multiple products and assumptions pertaining around them.
  • Successfully partnered with the client to assist in transitioning their forecast process, for efficiently executing short-term and long-range forecast cycles

Impact

  • Enabled the client to  visualize the impact of business events using the provided functionality
  • Decluttered and simplifying the repetitive forecast process. Reduced the forecast turn around time by 80%
  • Framework to extract executive-level summary from the model itself, enabled the client to work with multiple stakeholders
Download Case Study